Claude 5 released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic must release Claude 5 as a publicly accessible product—via open beta, open rolling waitlist, or general availability—before the end of 2025 for this market to settle affirmatively. The current 0% crowd probability reflects scepticism about the timeline; as of late 2024, Anthropic has not announced Claude 5 or signalled an imminent release date. The company's release cadence shows Claude 3 family models arrived in early 2024, with incremental updates (3.5 Sonnet) following in June. A major numbered version jump typically involves substantial architectural or capability improvements, which historically require longer development cycles than point releases.

Anthropic's public roadmap and investor communications provide the primary signals. The firm has emphasised iterative improvement over rapid major releases, and executives have not committed to a Claude 5 launch window. Traders should monitor Anthropic's official announcements, earnings calls (if applicable), and conference presentations through Q4 2025. Recent industry precedent—including OpenAI's multi-month gaps between GPT-4 and GPT-4 Turbo—suggests major model releases face unpredictable delays. The settlement window extends to April 2026, allowing verification of any December 2025 announcements, but the market's core dependency is Anthropic's engineering velocity and strategic timing, neither of which currently point toward a public Claude 5 release within the specified window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.