Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Tehran's primary civilian hub, must record at least one aircraft takeoff by 11:59 PM ET on 1 July 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The resolution hinges on actual wheels-up time logged by FlightAware or Iranian Civil Aviation Organisation records, not gate pushback or runway positioning. This distinction matters operationally: a flight can be cleared for departure yet remain grounded for hours due to mechanical, weather, or administrative holds.

The 100% implied probability reflects IKA's operational history as a major international airport serving roughly 20 million passengers annually before recent regional tensions. Comparable cases—such as Baghdad International's brief closures in 2014–2015 or Beirut-Rafic Hariri's periodic shutdowns—show that even severely disrupted airports typically resume some domestic or regional traffic within months rather than years. IKA has weathered previous sanctions regimes and military incidents without sustained cessation of all departures. A multi-year complete shutdown would be unprecedented for a hub of this scale and economic importance to Iran.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track Iranian Civil Aviation Organisation announcements, NOTAM (Notices to Airmen) feeds, and FlightAware's live departure boards for IKA (OIIE). Recent reporting from Reuters and AP indicates ongoing commercial operations at smaller Iranian airports; any resumption at IKA would likely be signalled weeks in advance through scheduling systems. Conditional order logic should weight the probability of at least one departure—whether cargo, charter, or scheduled service—occurring across a 30-month window, making the current 100% assessment consistent with historical precedent.

Methodology

This page reviews Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.