Claude Mythos released on…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic's release of a model officially designated "Claude Mythos" to the general public represents a specific product-naming milestone. The company has released Claude models under the Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus designations since 2023, establishing a clear naming convention. A "Mythos" release would signal either a new capability tier, a distinct model family, or a significant architectural departure from the existing lineup. The settlement window closes in mid-2026, constraining the timeframe for this event to occur.

Comparable product launches from frontier labs suggest naming announcements typically precede public availability by weeks rather than months. OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo and o1 releases followed announcement patterns where technical specifications and availability dates were disclosed simultaneously or in close sequence. Anthropic has not yet publicly mentioned a "Mythos" model class in earnings calls, blog posts, or developer documentation as of late 2024. The 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of any official signal or credible reporting about such a model in development.

Traders monitoring this market should track Anthropic's official announcements—particularly developer conference keynotes, technical blog posts, and API changelog updates—for any reference to a Mythos designation. Funding announcements or Series C completion could trigger product roadmap disclosures. Recent venture activity and competitive pressure from other labs releasing new model families would serve as indirect catalysts. For programmatic monitoring, setting alerts on Anthropic's official channels and parsing API documentation for new model identifiers would capture early signals before broader market awareness.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.