Claude Mythos released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic confirmed on 26 March 2026 that Claude Mythos, an unreleased model described in a data leak, exists and is undergoing early access testing. The leak detailed significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity capabilities. The market settles affirmatively if Anthropic releases this model or a variant confirmed to be the same system before 30 April 2026—a window of just over one month from the leak disclosure.

Historical precedent suggests caution around tight release windows following unplanned disclosures. When OpenAI's GPT-4 architecture details surfaced ahead of schedule in early 2023, the company proceeded with its planned March release largely unchanged, though the timeline remained flexible. Anthropic's public confirmation of Mythos testing—rather than denial or silence—signals genuine intent to move forward, yet early access testing does not guarantee public release within the settlement period. The 0% crowd probability reflects scepticism that a full, named release occurs by month-end, though this may underweight the reputational incentive to deliver after confirming the model's existence.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's official announcements and API documentation updates for release candidates. The company typically signals availability through developer blogs and console access rollouts. Watch for any statements clarifying whether "early access" constitutes a formal release under market terms, as definitional boundaries matter for settlement. Competitor releases—particularly if OpenAI or Google announce major model updates—could accelerate or delay Anthropic's timeline. News from Fortune, TechCrunch, and Anthropic's own channels will carry settlement-relevant detail through April.

Methodology

We track Claude Mythos released by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.