Bitcoin above ___ on May 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's precise closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT pair at the 12:00 noon Eastern Time candle on 13 May 2026. The settlement mechanism targets a specific one-minute candle rather than daily aggregates, making it suitable for traders using automated order execution or conditional trading bots that can trigger on exact timestamp data from Binance's API. Programmatically, this requires parsing the "Close" field from Binance's 1-minute candlestick endpoint with strict timezone handling for ET conversion.

The 100% implied probability reflects the market's current assessment that Bitcoin will trade above the specified threshold at that precise moment. Historical precedent suggests such certainty typically emerges when the threshold sits substantially below current spot prices, leaving minimal room for intraday volatility to breach the barrier. Bitcoin's typical daily trading ranges—often 2–5% of spot price—provide a quantifiable baseline for evaluating whether the threshold represents genuine consensus or reflects an anchoring effect from the market's initial pricing.

Traders monitoring this position should track macroeconomic calendars for May 2026, particularly US inflation data or Federal Reserve communications that could influence intraday volatility patterns. Exchange-specific factors matter too: Binance's liquidity depth and any scheduled maintenance windows during the settlement period could affect price discovery at noon ET. API latency and candle-close timing precision become operational considerations for automated systems executing conditional orders tied to this resolution.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin above ___ on May 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.