Bitcoin price on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin must print its **12:00 ET Binance 1-minute candle close** on the chosen date, so the settlement is driven by one timestamped spot datapoint rather than a daily average or a wider exchange index. For a power-user, that means the practical input is the live BTC/USDT microstructure around noon in New York, with bracket boundaries and the “higher range” tie-break making the exact candle close decisive rather than the intra-minute range.

The market is currently pricing **0% YES**, which leaves little room for mean reversion in the quote unless BTC is already trading very close to the relevant bracket at the point the candle is captured. Comparable live references cluster Bitcoin in the mid-$60,000s: CoinDesk shows about **$64,846**, Investing.com about **$64,073**, and YCharts about **$64,609** on nearby August readings, while OpenBitcoin’s August 2026 daily data shows a recent close of **$64,878** on 7 August[13][1][3][2]. That backdrop is consistent with a market that has been range-bound rather than trending cleanly, which matters because a single 1-minute close can sit above or below a bracket even when the broader day looks unchanged[2][17].

For a programme-driven approach, traders usually watch any schedule-linked catalysts that can move BTCUSDT into the noon ET window: macro prints, ETF flow headlines, funding-rate spikes, and sudden risk sentiment shifts, then translate those into conditional orders or bot logic keyed to the settlement timestamp. August-specific commentary has also pointed to seasonality and a fragile technical structure, with one recent Yahoo Finance piece describing BTC as trading near **$65,300** in a quiet, range-bound week and noting a weak seasonal backdrop for August[17]. That combination favours monitoring the last few minutes before noon ET rather than the whole day, because the market resolves on the exact Binance candle close at that moment[17][19].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Bitcoin price on August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.