Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 31 May 2026 will determine this market's outcome, with settlement tied to the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that precise moment. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current inability to forecast price action across an 18-month horizon with sufficient confidence to commit capital. For programmatic traders, this resolution mechanism—pinned to a specific exchange, timeframe, and timezone—requires robust data pipelines that can reliably fetch historical candle data from Binance's API and backtest conditional order logic against the exact settlement timestamp.

Historical volatility patterns offer limited predictive value at this distance. Bitcoin has ranged from roughly £16,000 to £65,000 over the past five years, with major moves typically driven by regulatory announcements, macroeconomic shifts, or technical capitulation events rather than linear trends. The 0% probability likely reflects rational scepticism about forecasting any asset's price 18 months forward, particularly one as sensitive to sentiment shifts as Bitcoin. Comparable long-dated markets on prediction platforms have consistently shown that crowd confidence erodes sharply beyond six-month horizons.

Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve policy signals, institutional adoption milestones, and any major regulatory developments from the SEC or international bodies. Bitcoin's correlation with tech equities and risk-on sentiment has strengthened since 2023, making broader equity market forecasts relevant context. For those building automated trading systems, the Binance API's candle endpoint supports historical queries, allowing backtesting of entry strategies against previous May 31st data to stress-test execution timing around the noon ET settlement window.

Methodology

This page reviews Bitcoin price on May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.