Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil passes daily, has experienced significant traffic disruption since late 2024 owing to regional tensions and Houthi attacks on shipping. The market tests whether a 7-day moving average of transit calls—measured by IMF Portwatch arrivals data across container, tanker, bulk, and general cargo vessels—will recover to 60 or above by end-June 2026. This threshold represents a return to pre-disruption baseline levels; transit calls averaged 58–62 daily during 2023–early 2024 before volatility spiked.

Historical precedent matters here. The 2022 Russia–Ukraine war disrupted Black Sea grain corridors for months; recovery took roughly 18 months once insurance and routing protocols stabilised. The 2019 Strait of Hormuz tensions saw traffic dip 15–20% but normalised within weeks once military posturing eased. The current situation sits between these cases: structural (insurance premiums, rerouting via Suez remain costlier) yet reversible if geopolitical conditions shift. At 21% implied probability, the market reflects scepticism that normalisation occurs within 18 months.

Traders monitoring this should track announcements from Iran's government, US policy shifts post-2025 elections, and Houthi ceasefire negotiations. Watch IMF Portwatch data releases directly—the resolution hinges on their specific methodology and publication schedule. Programmatically, set conditional alerts for when the 7-day average approaches 55–58, since the final push to 60 often occurs rapidly once shipping confidence returns. Regional insurance premium indices and Lloyd's List daily transit counts provide real-time proxy signals before official Portwatch figures publish.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.