Bitcoin price on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the final close price of the Binance one-minute BTC/USDT candle at noon ET on 27 June 2026, which determines whether Bitcoin exceeds a specific bracket. With the crowd assigning only a 2% chance to the “Yes” outcome, the market implies a steep expectation that the price will remain below that threshold at the settlement moment.

Historically, June has seen volatile swings, with Bitcoin peaking above $13,000 in 2019 and again breaching $10,000 in 2020, but more recently dropping to $60,074 in early 2026 before rebounding toward $97,860 in January 2026[6]. The current 2% probability aligns with periods where short-term resistance held firm despite broader bullish sentiment, such as when false breakouts near $31,000 failed to sustain upward momentum in late June 2026[1].

Traders should monitor scheduled macroeconomic releases, including US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary, which often drive intraday volatility. Recent analysis from Binance suggests that if buyers secure the $31,000 zone by end-of-day, a test of $31,458 resistance could follow, though midterm predictions remain uncertain[1]. Programmatically, conditional orders tied to the 12:00 ET candle close would be essential to capture precise settlement exposure, especially given the narrow margin between brackets.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.