Bitcoin above ___ on May 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT pair at the 1-minute candle for noon ET on 10 May 2026. The resolution hinges on a single data point: whether that specific candle's close exceeds the threshold price embedded in the market title. For traders using conditional orders or algorithmic execution, this represents a precise, verifiable settlement condition tied to a major exchange's public API data—the kind of granular price target that automated systems can monitor and act upon without ambiguity.

Historical precedent suggests that 1-minute candle closures at fixed times are rarely predictable far in advance. Bitcoin's intraday volatility means that noon ET prices fluctuate substantially day-to-day, with no reliable seasonal or calendar-based pattern. The current 0% implied probability indicates either that the threshold is set well above foreseeable price levels, or that market participants see negligible conviction in Bitcoin reaching that level by May 2026. Comparable fixed-time price markets typically show non-trivial probabilities only when the target sits within 5–15% of the prevailing spot price; extreme outliers generate near-zero odds.

Traders evaluating this through a programmatic lens should note that Binance's 1-minute candle data is accessible via REST and WebSocket APIs, making it straightforward to backtest historical noon ET closes or set up monitoring bots. Catalysts between now and May 2026—regulatory announcements, macroeconomic shifts, or major institutional adoption news—would shift the underlying spot price, but predicting a specific 1-minute candle closure remains a function of real-time volatility rather than medium-term directional conviction.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.