Bitcoin above ___ on May 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price at precisely 12:00 noon ET on 16 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle from Binance's BTC/USDT pair. The settlement hinges on a single data point: whether that specific candle's close exceeds the threshold price embedded in the market title. For algorithmic traders, this represents a narrow temporal window requiring precise API integration with Binance's candlestick data feed, with particular attention to timezone handling and the distinction between open, high, low, and close values within that minute.

A 0% crowd probability typically reflects either an extremely high strike price relative to Bitcoin's historical range or market participants viewing the threshold as unrealistic given current volatility patterns. Historical precedent suggests that single-minute price targets at extreme levels—whether far above or below spot price—attract minimal trading activity because the probability of a discrete 60-second candle closing at an outlier level is mathematically low. Comparable markets on intraday Bitcoin movements show that even modest deviations from current price require significant catalyst alignment to resolve affirmatively.

Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic announcements scheduled near the resolution window, particularly Federal Reserve communications or major geopolitical developments that could trigger intraday volatility spikes. Bitcoin's spot price behaviour on Binance can diverge temporarily from other venues during liquidity events, making real-time order book depth and funding rate conditions relevant to predicting noon ET execution. Conditional orders and automated triggers would need to account for potential slippage between market-making spreads and actual candle closes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.