Ethereum above ___ on May 15?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Ethereum's spot price at a precise moment: the close of the 1-minute candle on Binance's ETH/USDT pair at noon Eastern Time on 15 May 2026. The settlement hinges on a single data point from a specific exchange and trading pair, making it suitable for automated monitoring via API calls to Binance's public candlestick endpoints. Traders building conditional order systems or price-tracking bots would query the 1m timeframe data and compare the close price against the strike level specified in the market title.

A 100% crowd probability at this distance from settlement (over 18 months) typically reflects either an extremely high strike price relative to Ethereum's historical range, or insufficient liquidity and participation to establish meaningful odds. Historical precedent suggests that single-point-in-time markets on major assets rarely sustain extreme probabilities once trading volume accumulates; the crowd's confidence here warrants scrutiny of the actual strike price against Ethereum's trading history and volatility patterns. Comparable markets on Bitcoin or Ethereum at similar timeframes have seen probability shifts of 10–30 percentage points as settlement approaches and new market participants enter.

Catalysts affecting Ethereum's price trajectory through May 2026 include regulatory developments from the SEC and EU frameworks, Ethereum protocol upgrades or scaling solution adoption metrics, and macroeconomic conditions influencing risk-on sentiment. Traders monitoring this market should track Ethereum Foundation announcements, major DeFi protocol developments, and broader cryptocurrency market structure changes. Binance's own operational status and data integrity are also dependencies; API downtime or exchange issues could complicate real-time settlement verification.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.