Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) has passed the House but remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, creating the bottleneck that keeps the 38% YES probability low. For a power-user building a programmatic strategy, this market functions as a binary event on legislative momentum rather than regulatory substance, requiring a bot to monitor congressional tracker status changes rather than parsing legal text.

Historically, crypto market structure bills in the US face significant Senate friction despite bipartisan House support, mirroring the trajectory of the earlier FIT21 bill which took over a year to reach the President. The current probability reflects this structural inertia; while the House passed CLARITY in July 2025 with strong backing, the Senate has prioritised the competing Responsible Financial Innovation Act (RFIA), which focuses narrowly on SEC authority and lacks the CFTC-exclusive jurisdiction provisions central to CLARITY [5]. This legislative divergence suggests the 38% figure is a rational assessment of the difficulty in reconciling two distinct regulatory frameworks before the 2026 deadline.

Traders must watch for a Senate Banking Committee markup announcement or a floor vote schedule, as these are the primary catalysts for resolution. A recent update notes the bill sits with the Senate Banking Committee, with the path to law remaining unclear due to the committee’s focus on RFIA [5]. Programmatically, a conditional order should trigger only upon a status change from “In Committee” to “Passed Senate” on Congress.gov, as any delay beyond late 2026 will likely result in a NO settlement given the tight settlement window ending 1 January 2027 [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.