Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is Credible Finance’s curated public sale on MetaDAO, which opened on 13 July 2026 and runs until 31 August 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” if the “committed” figure on the official sale page reaches the title’s threshold before the deadline, regardless of later refunds. Institutional soft commits already total $2.315m, providing a high-confidence floor for the raise[1].

Historical MetaDAO fundraises show a pattern of rapid commitment accumulation once curated sales open, with eight ICOs collectively raising $25.6m and over $290m in total commitments across the platform[5][7]. The 99% crowd-implied probability aligns with this track record: previous curated raises on MetaDAO have consistently hit or exceeded their minimum targets, and the platform’s “unruggable” architecture reduces investor hesitation by preventing founder abuse[7].

Traders should monitor the live committed counter on the sale page, Credible’s X announcements for milestone updates, and any MetaDAO governance posts that could alter sale terms or timing[8]. The sale is powered by Solana and follows MetaDAO’s standard launchpad structure, which includes a minimum USDC target and a discretionary cap[7]. A recent Blockworks analytics dashboard confirms that total value raised on MetaDAO reflects committed capital from fundraises, reinforcing the reliability of the on-page figure as the resolution source[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.