What price will Bitcoin hit on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 11 August 2026 will be determined by spot and futures market behaviour across major exchanges during that calendar day. The settlement window closes on 12 August at 04:00 UTC, meaning traders have until the end of the preceding day to position for a specific price target. Unlike daily volatility markets that track intraday ranges, this contract requires Bitcoin to touch a particular level at any point during the 24-hour window—a condition that shapes how conditional orders and price-monitoring bots should be configured.

Historical precedent suggests that single-day price targets for Bitcoin more than two years forward carry structural uncertainty. In comparable long-dated crypto markets, crowd probability tends toward zero when the event date is distant and no specific catalyst is anchored to that date. August 2026 lacks scheduled regulatory announcements, protocol upgrades, or macroeconomic events currently on the calendar. Traders evaluating this market should cross-reference Bitcoin's realised volatility over rolling 12-month periods; if annualised volatility remains in the 40–70% range typical of recent years, the probability of any given price level being touched increases substantially, but the current 0% reading suggests the crowd is pricing in either extreme stability or treating the contract as a residual category.

Programmatically, a trader would monitor Bitcoin's price trajectory from mid-2025 onwards, setting alerts tied to technical resistance and support levels that might naturally gravitate toward the settlement date. Dependency tracking should include Fed policy shifts, spot exchange inflows, and any announced changes to major institutional custody arrangements, as these drive multi-month trends that could make certain price targets more or less plausible as August 2026 approaches.

Methodology

This page reviews What price will Bitcoin hit on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.