What price will Bitcoin hit on June 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the spot price of Bitcoin at the exact moment of 1am EDT on June 24, 2026, which determines the settlement of this prediction market. Current data shows Bitcoin trading near $62,651.93, down 2.04% from the previous day and roughly 40.6% below its level one year ago[5]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome suggests the market expects the price to stay within a narrow, low-range band rather than surge significantly above current levels.

Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited extreme volatility, peaking at $126,198.07 in October 2025 before retreating to lows of $60,074 in early 2026[1][7]. Comparable cases from June 2026 show the price hovering between $62,598 and $67,665, with technical analysts forecasting a minimum of $62,598.11 for the month[4]. This context frames the current 0% probability as a reflection of the asset’s recent consolidation phase, where price action has been constrained by a lack of major bullish catalysts and persistent downward momentum from the 2025 peak.

Traders should monitor upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, scheduled ETF inflow reports, and any sudden shifts in regulatory sentiment, as these are primary dependencies for price movement. Recent news from Fortune indicates a $2,784.51 daily decrease, reinforcing the bearish short-term trend that may persist through June[1]. Programmatically, a power-user would deploy conditional orders tied to these catalysts, using bots to execute copy-trading strategies that react instantly to volume spikes or news feeds, ensuring exposure is managed dynamically rather than statically.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.