What price will Ethereum hit on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ethereum must touch the relevant strike by the settlement window close on 3 August 2026 at 04:00 UTC, so this market is really a short-dated range test rather than a full-day directional bet. With the crowd-implied YES probability at 0%, the live book is treating the threshold as effectively out of reach unless ETH prints an abrupt repricing before expiry; in practice, that makes order placement and fill quality more important than broad macro views.

Comparable August forecasts are mixed, which is typical for a market built around a single intraday level. Some aggregators still frame ETH in the low-to-mid $2,000s for August 2026, while others publish much lower bands closer to the high $1,700s or low $1,800s[1][2][6][12][15]. Robinhood’s own event page shows near-dated strike ladders clustered around $1,865, $1,870 and $1,875, with the highest quoted bins already priced at 99¢, which is consistent with a market where traders have largely anchored to a narrow band and are using bots, conditional orders and quick repricing rather than discretionary conviction[5].

For a programmatic trader, the key catalysts are the spot ETH tape, any ETF-flow headlines, and whether risk assets are trading with or against the broader crypto complex into the deadline. The most useful setup is to watch the last 24 hours of liquidity, because prediction-market probabilities can change sharply if ETH approaches a nearby rung and bot-assisted market making widens or tightens the spread[5][11]. Recent price-forecast coverage also points to weak volume and only a cautious recovery backdrop, which matters because a thin market can move the implied odds more than the underlying spot price itself[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.