What price will Bitcoin hit on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price on 6 June 2026 remains unspecified in the market terms, meaning traders are effectively wagering on whether the asset will reach any particular threshold during that calendar day. The settlement window closes on 7 June at 04:00 UTC, giving a roughly 28-hour observation period. Current crowd pricing at 0% YES suggests either extreme confidence in a specific price floor or ceiling, or minimal liquidity and participation in this particular outcome.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin's daily trading ranges have compressed during mature bull phases and expanded during volatility spikes. In 2021, daily swings of $5,000–$10,000 were routine; by 2023–2024, intraday moves of 3–7% became the norm. A trader building conditional orders or bot logic around this market would need to anchor on the implied price level embedded in the market's phrasing—which the current description does not make explicit. This ambiguity itself explains the zero probability: without a defined strike price, the market collapses into a semantic rather than predictive instrument.

Catalysts through June 2026 will centre on macroeconomic data (US inflation, Fed policy signals), regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies, and corporate treasury moves. Bitcoin's correlation with equities and real rates has tightened since 2023, making equity futures and Treasury yields useful leading indicators for programmatic traders. Monitoring on-chain metrics—whale accumulation, exchange inflows, and funding rates on perpetual futures—provides real-time signal for volatility clustering around the settlement date.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.