Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↑ 1,750 | 100% |
| ↑ 1,750 | 100% |
| ↓ 2,500 | 100% |
| ↓ 2,000 | 100% |
| ↑ 2,000 | 87% |
| ↑ 2,250 | 55% |
| ↓ 1,500 | 50% |
| ↑ 2,500 | 34% |
| ↓ 1,250 | 24% |
| ↑ 2,750 | 19% |
| ↑ 3,000 | 16% |
| ↑ 3,500 | 13% |
| ↓ 1,000 | 12% |
| ↓ 800 | 8% |
| ↑ 4,000 | 7% |
| ↓ 700 | 6% |
| ↑ 4,500 | 6% |
| ↓ 600 | 5% |
| ↑ 5,500 | 4% |
| ↑ 5,000 | 4% |
| ↓ 500 | 3% |
| ↑ 6,000 | 3% |
| ↑ 10,000 | 2% |
| ↑ 8,000 | 2% |
| ↑ 7,500 | 2% |
| ↑ 7,000 | 2% |
| ↑ 6,500 | 2% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to what price will ethereum hit in 2026?. What price will Ethereum hit before 2027?
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? on Polymarket Bot UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →