What price will Ethereum hit on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ethereum’s relevant event is the exchange rate at the market’s settlement point on 9 August 2026, so a programmatic trader would treat it as a timestamped price feed problem rather than a directional thesis. Live references around that date clustered near $1,914–$1,920, with MetaMask showing $1,918.90 and other market trackers printing broadly similar levels, which is consistent with a tight intraday band rather than a large gap risk into expiry.[1][3][6]

The current crowd-implied 0% YES suggests the market is treating the target as outside the plausible settlement range, but the historical framing is that ETH can move enough in a single session to revisit nearby round-number bands without needing a major regime shift. Recent comparable snapshots show ETH around $1,916 with a seven-day gain near 3.9%, while daily historical data for 9 August 2026 printed roughly $1.92K across open, high, low and close, reinforcing that the relevant question is whether the referenced venue’s price source ever tags the contract’s threshold rather than where spot “should” end the day.[2][3]

For a trader using bots, copy-trading or conditional orders, the practical watchlist is the exact feed the market settles on, plus any catalyst that can create a brief spike through the trigger level before the window closes. The main dependencies are ETF flow headlines, staking-policy developments, and any scheduled network or regulatory announcement that can affect liquidity and volatility; CoinStats’ 9 August market note specifically pointed to spot ETF inflows and a contentious staking-policy debate as the day’s structural backdrop.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.