Fed Decision in June?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Open Market Committee will convene in June 2026 to set monetary policy. This market resolves based on the basis-point change to the upper bound of the target federal funds range announced at that meeting, rounded to the nearest 25bp bracket. A 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing near-certainty that rates will remain unchanged at that decision point.

Historical FOMC behaviour provides context for interpreting this signal. Between 2022 and 2023, the Fed executed nine consecutive 25bp increases, then paused for six months before resuming adjustments. The current 0% reading aligns with periods of policy pause—typically occurring when inflation trajectories stabilise or economic data suggests sufficient tightening has occurred. Comparable June meetings in 2015 and 2018 both resulted in 25bp hikes, though those followed different macroeconomic conditions. The absence of any non-zero probability assigned to this June decision suggests the crowd expects either a completed rate cycle or conditions too uncertain to price in movement.

Traders monitoring this market should track inflation releases (CPI, PCE) through spring 2026, employment data, and Fed communications regarding the terminal rate. The FOMC's May 2026 meeting and subsequent policy guidance will be critical signals. Any material shift in inflation expectations or recession risk would require recalibrating the probability distribution. For algorithmic traders, this market's current pricing creates a conditional-order opportunity: setting triggers on PCE prints or Fed speaker commentary that would justify position entry if probabilities shift away from zero.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.