Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?

Name: Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?
Start: 2026-06-21T20:23:16.778Z
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	51%	49%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Place a position →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	51%	49%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Place a position →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Place a position →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Place a position →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Shabana Mahmood	51%
Person D	50%
Person E	50%
Person F	50%
Person G	50%
Person H	50%
Person I	50%
Person J	50%
Person K	50%
Person L	50%
Person M	50%
Person N	50%
Person O	50%
Person P	50%
Person Q	50%
Person R	50%
Person S	50%
Person T	50%
Person U	50%
Person V	50%
Person W	50%
Person X	50%
Person Y	50%
Person Z	50%
Other	50%
Ed Miliband	17%
Yvette Cooper	11%
Pat McFadden	8%
Wes Streeting	3%
Darren Jones	1%
No next Chancellor in 2026	1%
Torsten Bell	0%
John Healey	0%
Louise Haigh	0%
Miatta Fahnbulleh	0%

Market context

Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026? — current market-implied probability: 51%. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, t…

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?: Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?: Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?: Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?: The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026? on Polymarket Bot UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026? on Polymarket Bot UK

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