How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world driver is how many 25bp Fed cuts actually land in 2026, including any emergency move between scheduled meetings. For a programmatic approach, the key variable is not “will the Fed ease?” but the count of discrete 25bp actions before the settlement cut-off, so a single 50bp move would register as two outcomes in this market.

Recent framing has shifted towards a lower-cut, higher-uncertainty path. Goldman Sachs’ 2026 outlook has at points called for cuts in March and June, while J.P. Morgan has said the Fed could stay on hold through the rest of 2026; other market commentary and surveys have ranged from one cut to none, and some desks have even flagged hike risk depending on inflation.[2][1][3][15][17] That spread matters for a bot or conditional-order workflow because the 89% YES crowd price is effectively a consensus on *some* easing, not on the exact number, and the market can reprice quickly if the Fed guidance shifts towards holding steady.[18][4]

The main catalysts are FOMC statements, the dot plot, meeting-by-meeting inflation data, and any surprise inter-meeting action. The Fed’s June 2026 projections showed a more divided committee, with the median year-end rate forecast moving higher and several members seeing no cut or even hikes, which is exactly the kind of input that can tighten the distribution around zero or one cut rather than two.[4][20][19] For tooling, the practical trigger map is straightforward: monitor the remaining scheduled FOMC dates, watch whether futures pricing moves to a full cut or no-cut stance, and update any automated position logic whenever official guidance changes the probability of a second 25bp cut becoming implausible before year-end.[9][8][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.