Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade and remains one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. This market tracks whether daily ship transits through the strait will reach a specified threshold on any single day before the end of May 2026, measured by IMF Portwatch arrival data across container, tanker, bulk, and general cargo vessels. The resolution hinges on a single day's published figure meeting or exceeding the target—a binary outcome that depends entirely on official port statistics rather than geopolitical events or shipping announcements.

Historical transit volumes through Hormuz have ranged between 15 and 30 daily arrivals during normal operating conditions, with occasional spikes during seasonal demand shifts or supply disruptions. The 10% implied probability suggests the market is pricing in a scenario requiring either an exceptional surge in traffic or a significant disruption to normal patterns. Comparable periods of elevated transits occurred during 2022 sanctions-evasion activity and early 2023 when alternative routes faced congestion. Traders should note that IMF Portwatch publishes data with a lag; automated monitoring systems would need to account for this reporting delay when setting conditional triggers.

Key variables to monitor include OPEC production decisions, geopolitical tensions affecting regional stability, and seasonal shipping patterns. Recent shipping indices and port authority announcements from the UAE and Iran provide leading indicators of transit pressure. A trader approaching this programmatically would benefit from setting up daily feeds from IMF Portwatch and cross-referencing against shipping news from sources like Lloyd's List or maritime intelligence platforms, allowing conditional orders to execute once the threshold is published rather than relying on manual observation.

Methodology

This page reviews Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

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