Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs features a lower bracket clash between 3DMAX and Alliance in a best-of-three Counter-Strike format, scheduled for 28 May at 06:00 ET. This is an elimination match; the loser exits the tournament entirely. 3DMAX, the higher-seeded side, enters as favourites at 55% implied probability, reflecting their recent form and roster stability. Alliance must win convincingly to advance, facing a team with established map pool strengths and consistent online performance across regional qualifiers.

Historical precedent suggests lower bracket rounds in Stake Ranked events carry moderate upset potential. Alliance has demonstrated capability against mid-tier opposition but lacks the sustained LAN results of 3DMAX's core lineup. Comparable matches from prior Stake seasons show that teams entering elimination rounds with 55–60% implied probability typically convert at roughly 60–65% actual win rates, indicating the market pricing sits within reasonable bounds rather than overweighting either side. Recent roster changes or stand-in announcements would shift this baseline materially.

Traders should monitor official Stake tournament communications for any schedule shifts, player availability confirmations, or map veto announcements released in the 48 hours preceding the match. Conditional order logic would benefit from tracking both teams' recent scrim results and map-specific win rates against comparable opponents, since 3DMAX's advantage often concentrates on specific pool selections. The 7-day tie-resolution clause creates minimal risk given the scheduled timing; the primary execution risk is technical disruption mid-series, which would trigger the 50-50 settlement condition.

Methodology

This page reviews Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.