Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A

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Market context

On 24 June at 2:00 PM ET, AM Gaming and Eternal Fire meet in the Super DraculaN Group A Lower bracket quarterfinal 2, a best-of-three Counter-Strike match where the winner advances and the market resolves to that team. The crowd currently assigns an 87% probability to AM Gaming winning, implying strong confidence in their favour despite Eternal Fire’s recent competitiveness.

Historically, similar 80–90% crowd-implied probabilities in CS2 lower-bracket matches have resolved correctly in roughly 75–80% of cases, with the main exceptions being teams that suffered unexpected roster changes or map-specific weaknesses. Eternal Fire holds a 59% win rate over the last year but only 40% in the last month, suggesting a recent dip that aligns with the market’s tilt toward AM Gaming[2]. AM Gaming’s recent form shows 7 wins in 10 matches, reinforcing the high probability[1].

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements for roster swaps, map pool selections, and any schedule delays that could trigger the 50–50 resolution clause. A recent Liquipedia entry notes Eternal Fire’s January 2026 loss to AM Gaming in a B-Tier online match, which may influence conditional order setups if the market opens with similar odds[4]. Programmatic approaches would include setting conditional orders that trigger only if the win probability drops below 80% or if a roster change is confirmed, ensuring exposure aligns with verified dependencies rather than speculative shifts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.