Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: BTF (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-3.5) vs Rune Eaters (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-3.5) vs Rune Eaters (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-9.5) vs Rune Eaters (+9.5) | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs Butterfly (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-6.5) vs Rune Eaters (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Rune Eaters (-6.5) vs Butterfly (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Rune Eaters (-3.5) vs Butterfly (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-6.5) vs Rune Eaters (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Butterfly meet Rune Eaters in a best-of-three playoff tie at CCT Europe Series #6, and the market is already priced at **100% YES** for Butterfly. The match was scheduled for 5 August at 11:15 UTC, and Sofascore now lists Butterfly as the 2–0 winner, which means the event has already produced a full result rather than remaining live uncertainty.[1][3]
That makes the current price easy to read against recent comparable cases in the same event: CCT Europe Series #6 playoff matches are all BO3s, with single-elimination pressure and no room for variance from drawn series formats.[4][6] Rune Eaters have already shown they can navigate long series at this tournament, including a 2–1 win over UNiTY on 30 July, while Butterfly were included among the direct playoff invitees, so this was not a mismatch between a qualifier and a seed from a different tier.[7][9]
For a power-user tracking resolution programmatically, the key watchpoints are whether the match page reports a completed BO3, whether the tournament bracket advances, and whether any official reschedule or cancellation notice appears before the settlement window closes. Liquipedia and event previews place the playoff stage inside the 27 July–8 August tournament window, so a valid result inside that period should settle normally; only a cancellation, delay beyond seven days, or other non-completion would force the 50-50 fallback.[4][9]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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