Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: ENCE (-1.5) vs HAVU (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ENCE (-3.5) vs HAVU (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: HAVU (-1.5) vs ENCE (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: HAVU (-6.5) vs ENCE (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: HAVU (-3.5) vs ENCE (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ENCE (-3.5) vs HAVU (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ENCE (-6.5) vs HAVU (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ENCE (-6.5) vs HAVU (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ENCE (-9.5) vs HAVU (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
ENCE versus HAVU is a best-of-three semi-final in the Elisa BreakOut Series #1 playoffs, with the match listed for 1 August and ENCE entering from the stronger group-stage showing. ENCE went 3-0 in Group A, while HAVU’s playoff route comes from a quieter Group B schedule, which matters because a 100% crowd-implied price leaves little room for anything except execution risk, admin delay, or a settlement edge case rather than a balanced trading view.[14][1][2]
For programmatic handling, the cleanest read is that the market should behave like a near-certain “yes” unless the fixture changes state: start-time confirmation, official bracket updates, and match completion are the key signals. Historical comparables also lean ENCE’s way: ENCE have beaten HAVU in recent head-to-heads, including a 2-0 at Elisa Masters Espoo 2023 and other prior meetings, though HAVU have taken maps in the longer series set, which is relevant for BO3 volatility but not enough to offset the current implied certainty.[7]
The main catalysts to watch are simple state changes rather than form narratives: whether the semifinal is still on the schedule, whether a map veto or server issue pushes it back, and whether either team is replaced or awarded a walkover. The event is a LAN in Helsinki with all playoff matches set as BO3s, so any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days would override match quality and send settlement to 50-50 under the rules; for bot logic, that means tracking bracket authority and live match status before triggering copy-trades or conditional orders.[18][16][2]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Counter-Strike: ENCE vs HAVU (BO3) - Elisa BreakOut … on Polymarket Bot UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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