Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: IMP (-1.5) vs Isurus (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-3.5) vs Isurus (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-3.5) vs Isurus (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-3.5) vs Isurus (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-6.5) vs Isurus (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-9.5) vs Isurus (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-6.5) vs Isurus (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-9.5) vs Isurus (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-12.5) vs Isurus (+12.5) | 0% |
Market context
Imperial Esports and Isurus Gaming are set to face off in the Quarterfinal 1 of the CCT South America Series 3 Playoffs, a Counter-Strike 2 match scheduled for 3:00 PM ET on 8 July 2026. The contest is a best-of-three series where the winner is determined by securing two map victories, with the market resolving to "Imperial" if they win the match outright.
Historically, matches with a 100% crowd-implied probability in regional Counter-Strike tournaments often reflect overwhelming form disparities or prior head-to-head dominance, though such certainty can be fragile if unexpected roster changes or in-game volatility occur. Imperial currently holds a #50 ranking in the Strafe CS2 World Rankings and has won two of their last five matches, while Isurus’s recent streak shows one win and one loss, suggesting a competitive but not insurmountable gap[1][2]. In similar CCT qualifiers, teams with comparable form have occasionally overturned pre-match odds when map-specific strategies favoured the underdog, making the 100% YES line a high-value signal for programmatically conditional orders that trigger only if live map scores deviate from expectations.
Traders should monitor real-time map selections, any pre-match announcements regarding player availability, and the official CCT South America schedule for delays or cancellations, as these dependencies directly impact settlement conditions. Recent coverage from Strafe confirms the match is active and scheduled for 7:01 PM local time, with no reported disruptions, but conditional bots must remain alert to live score feeds for early map wins that could resolve the market before the full BO3 concludes[1]. If the match begins but is not completed due to opponent disqualification, the market resolves to the winning team, a clause that programmatically requires live event monitoring to capture such edge cases accurately.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South… on Polymarket Bot UK
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