Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Grand Final will pit magic against Ninjas in Pyjamas (NIP) in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match scheduled for 30 May at 12:30 PM ET. The 0% implied probability suggests either insufficient liquidity or strong market conviction that magic will not advance to this stage, though the settlement window extends to 22:00 UTC on the same day, allowing roughly nine and a half hours post-scheduled start for match completion and resolution.

Historical precedent in Stake Ranked tournaments shows that Grand Final matchups rarely fail to execute on their scheduled dates, with forfeiture or disqualification occurring in fewer than 2% of cases across prior episodes. The 50-50 tie-break clause applies only if the match is cancelled outright, delayed beyond seven days without resolution, or abandoned mid-series—scenarios that have materialised in previous Stake events primarily due to technical infrastructure failures rather than team logistics. NIP's established infrastructure and magic's qualification to a Grand Final both suggest operational stability, making the tie-break condition a low-probability hedge.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track Stake's official broadcast schedule and team roster announcements in the 48 hours preceding the event. Recent Stake Ranked communications (via their esports Twitter and in-game client notifications) have confirmed fixture integrity for Episode 2, though conditional order logic should account for the seven-day grace period before the 50-50 resolution triggers. Any announcement of player illness, visa complications, or server outages affecting either team would be the primary catalyst shifting the current probability away from zero.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.