Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 2 match between Walczaki and Inner Circle Esports in the Super DraculaN Playoffs, scheduled for 11:00 AM ET on 26 June 2026. This best-of-three contest determines the winner of the quarterfinal stage, with the market resolving to Walczaki if they win the match. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for Walczaki winning, suggesting the market heavily favours Inner Circle Esports despite Walczaki’s recent progression through the tournament.

Historically, similar 0% probabilities in CS2 quarterfinals have preceded unexpected upsets when a lower-ranked team faces a top-tier opponent, as seen in Echo’s 2-1 victory over Walczaki in the Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1, where Walczaki advanced to the quarterfinals after losing to Echo[2]. Such cases indicate that 0% probabilities often reflect overconfidence rather than certainty, and programmatically, traders should monitor conditional orders that trigger if map odds shift significantly before match start.

Key catalysts include live map statistics from Bo3.gg showing Walczaki’s current handicap at +1.5 maps with a winner odds of 1.15, suggesting a slight edge in map performance[1]. Traders should watch for announcements regarding team line-ups, schedule changes, or dependencies on prior matches, as any delay beyond seven days without a winner resolves the market to 50-50. Recent news from Sofascore confirms the match start time at 15:00 UTC on 26 June, reinforcing the need for real-time monitoring of pre-match odds[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.