Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp (BO3) - Asgard Championship Playoffs

Platform comparison

Market context

FTS and PuckChamp have already met in the Asgard Championship Playoffs, and the result matters more than the pre-match crowd price suggests: SofaScore shows the series finished 2–0 to FTS, with the match starting at 13:00 UTC and ending as a completed best-of-three.[1] That makes the current 100% YES price effectively a stale or already-resolved signal rather than a live forecast, which is important for any bot or trading workflow that keys off scheduled starts, status changes, and settlement rules rather than headline probability alone.[1][13]

For context, the teams had no prior head-to-head before this event, and secondary match pages had PuckChamp as the narrower favourite on form and ranking before play, with Strafe listing PuckChamp around rank #40 and citing a 61.5% community vote for PuckChamp to win.[2][4] More recent tournament pages also show both sides entering through playoff matches on the same day, including FTS losing to Level UP and PuckChamp losing to Team Lynx the day before, which is the sort of dependency a programmatic trader would watch when scanning bracket progress and same-day scheduling.[6][8][10]

The practical catalysts are straightforward: confirm whether the match is marked finished, forfeited, postponed, or replayed, because the market’s rule-set treats a non-played cancellation, tie, or a delay beyond seven days as 50-50, while an in-progress forfeiture can still produce a winner.[1] A power-user setup would usually poll the match feed, compare the official bracket clock against the market’s settlement window, and suppress copy-trading or conditional entries once a completion flag or scoreline has already been published, since the event is no longer an open binary if the series result is already recorded.[1][5][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.