Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Midas Club (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Midas (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Midas Club and Team Resilience are scheduled to meet in a **best-of-three Dota 2 elimination match** in Games of the Future Group B, and live listings show the series starting at 05:00 GMT with Map 1 already under way and the score at 0-0.[1][3] For a programme-driven trader, the market is therefore a straight match-winner binary rather than a map handicap problem: once the first game loads, the relevant automation is to monitor whether the series reaches a completed winner before the settlement window closes, because an interrupted, unplayed, or excessively delayed match can push the market into the 50-50 fallback state under the rules.
The current **100% YES** crowd price sits well above most external signals, which is important context for any model that ingests odds or crowd data. GosuGamers lists Team Resilience as the higher-ranked side, at 26th versus Midas Club’s 40th, and Strafe shows users leaning towards Team Resilience at roughly 70%, while bookmaker-style pricing on Pari also makes Team Resilience the marginal favourite.[3][6][4] That means a near-certain YES price on the market name itself may reflect either a stale state, a data-feed lag, or heavy position concentration rather than a clean read on the match outcome, so a bot should cross-check live score endpoints and market-side contract labels before placing conditional orders.
For catalysts, the key variables are whether the fixture continues uninterrupted, whether the organiser’s bracket state confirms a completed winner, and whether any schedule change affects the 7-day fallback rule.[1][7][19] Because the series is already listed as live by multiple scoreboards, the practical approach is to watch for confirmed final map completion and avoid relying on pre-match assumptions once the event has moved from scheduled to in-play status.[1][8][12]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Dota 2: Midas Club vs Team Resilience (BO3) - Games … on Polymarket Bot UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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