Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Match Winner | 80% |
| Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) | 69% |
| Game 2 Winner | 65% |
| Game 3 Winner | 62% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 50% |
| Game Handicap: PlayTime (-2.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+2.5) | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game Handicap: YB (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game 4 Winner | 38% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 33% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game Handicap: YB (-2.5) vs PlayTime (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
PlayTime and Yakult Brothers are in the Dota 2 grand final of the Games of the Future playoffs, a best-of-five that was listed to start at 12:00 UTC on 5 August, with live match pages already showing the series under way. PlayTime entered the final after a 2-0 semi-final win over Team Resilience, while Yakult Brothers advanced with a 2-1 result over Rune Eaters.[1][2][6][8]
For market reading, the current **24% YES** implies the crowd has PlayTime as the clear underdog, but not an outlier in a five-map final where one clean draft edge can swing the whole series. Comparable bracket coverage points to PlayTime carrying stronger ranking and recent map form than Yakult Brothers, yet the final is still structurally high-variance because BO5 outcomes are driven by hero draft, side choice and stamina across multiple maps rather than a single-game sample.[2][11][8]
A programmatic trader would watch three things closely: the official series status, any pre-match or in-series schedule changes, and whether the match reaches completion before the settlement window closes. Tournament and score pages are already publishing the live start time and map state, which makes this a straightforward event to monitor through an API or bot, but the resolution rules still matter because any cancellation, tie or delay beyond seven days pushes the market to 50-50 rather than a team-side outcome.[1][3][6]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yakult Brothers (BO5) - Games of… on Polymarket Bot UK
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