Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs Midas Club (+1.5) | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Midas (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Rune Eaters and Midas Club are scheduled to play a best-of-three in Group B of Games of the Future, a format where a single map swing can quickly change a market that is effectively being treated as settled already. The live pricing at 100% YES should be read against the fact that the fixture is listed across multiple esports calendars as an upcoming Group B match, with Rune Eaters generally rated ahead in rank and recent pre-match models, while the market itself is positioned to pay only on a Rune Eaters win, not on map score or series length.[1][2][4][10]
For comparable handling, power users usually treat this kind of market as a schedule-and-confirmation problem rather than a pure skill-probability bet. The key reference points are the official start time, whether the series actually launches, and whether both teams are still fielding complete line-ups; several listings still show the match as not started, while some betting-style pages already flag postponed or cancelled states, which is exactly the sort of discrepancy that can matter for automated rules and conditional orders.[1][7][11][18] The broader event schedule also matters because the Games of the Future group stage is tightly sequenced, so any knock-on delay from adjacent fixtures can move this series within the settlement window.[16]
The main catalysts to watch are official bracket updates, any roster or walkover notices, and whether coverage flips from preview pages to live score feeds before the 12:10 UTC settlement cut-off. As of the latest available listings, the match is still posted as an imminent BO3 with no completed result, and market participants using bots or alerts would usually monitor both the tournament timetable and live match-centre status rather than relying on a single odds feed.[1][2][4][5]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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