Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 91% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 91% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 91% |
| Ends in Daytime | 91% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: PckCp (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: TS.A (-1.5) vs PuckChamp (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Spirit Academy are due to face PuckChamp in a best-of-three at EPL Masters Play-In Group A, with settlement tied to the live match outcome rather than any series of qualifiers or future fixtures. For a programmatic workflow, that means the cleanest inputs are start confirmation, map-by-map progress, and the official final score, because any abandonment, cancellation or tie condition can force the market to a non-standard resolution.
The 100% yes price implies the market is already treating the result as effectively locked, so historical comparisons matter less for direction than for execution risk. Comparable match pages show disagreement in public and book-style signals: Strafe’s crowd vote leans PuckChamp 70-30, while BO3’s prices still leave both 2-0 and 2-1 paths live for either side, which is a reminder that BO3 Dota markets can move sharply on draft quality, stand-ins and late roster changes rather than reputation alone.[1][2] That makes the current crowd-implied certainty more a function of positioning than a guarantee of competitive balance.
For traders using bots, the key catalysts are whether the 6:00AM ET start actually happened, whether the series was rescheduled inside the seven-day window, and whether the event page or organiser feed confirms the completed winner before the settlement cut-off. Dota 2 markets at this stage are most sensitive to pre-match line-up confirmations and last-minute bracket edits, since a delayed or unplayed match can flip the resolution away from the straightforward winner-take-all path.[3]
Methodology
This page reviews Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs PuckChamp (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs PuckChamp (BO3) - EPL Mast… on Polymarket Bot UK
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