Dota 2: Execration vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A

Platform comparison

Market context

Execration and Amaru Gaming are scheduled to meet in a best-of-three Dota 2 group match at the Games of the Future, so the market only pays out cleanly if a winner is recorded before the settlement window closes. The current crowd-implied 100% YES price is effectively treating the series as already decided, but the programmatic check should still watch for the match state: played, completed, or converted to a void/50-50 outcome if it is cancelled, tied, or left unresolved beyond the rule window.

The main historical frame is that this is an uneven, low-history pairing: Strafe lists it as the first head-to-head between the teams, with Execration ranked #21 and Amaru Gaming #28, and notes Execration have won 2 of their last 5 matches versus 1 of 5 for Amaru[3]. DLTV’s recent matchup page also shows both sides coming in with comparable three-month win rates in the mid-40s to low-50s, which argues for treating the 100% crowd price as a potential data-quality or event-status artefact rather than a stable competitive read[1][5].

For trading infrastructure, the practical catalysts are schedule integrity and live series progression: the listing on Hawk shows a 05:00 GMT start time, while other match pages place the game around the same morning slot, so bots should verify the official start state before assuming settlement risk has passed[2][4]. If you are running conditional orders or copy-trading rules, the useful triggers are a confirmed lobby start, map-one completion, and any organiser delay notice, because a cancelled or never-played series would not resolve to either team under the market rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Dota 2: Execration vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.