Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Execration face Grind Back in a best-of-three lower-bracket playoff at the Southeast Asia closed qualifier for The International, so the live price is mainly a read on which side is more likely to survive an elimination match rather than on raw team strength. With the crowd-implied probability sitting at 50% YES, the market is pricing the match as effectively even, which is consistent with a bracket game where one upset, draft read or map swing can decide the result quickly.

For context, both teams have enough recent regional activity to make model-based trading feasible, but not enough public data to support a strong pre-match edge without checking line-ups and current form. Execration have recorded a recent series against Grind Back in late May, while Grind Back have also been active in Southeast Asian events and qualifier-style matches this season.[2][3][4][7] In a bot or conditional-order workflow, that means the cleanest approach is to treat this as a short-horizon event driven by confirmed roster news and the published bracket path, not by broad season averages.[1][3][7]

The main catalysts are operational rather than narrative: whether the series starts on schedule, whether the official bracket still shows a lower-bracket semifinal slot, and whether either team posts last-minute stand-in or delay updates. The market settles on the named winner if the match is played to completion, but reverts to 50-50 if it is cancelled, tied, or pushed more than seven days without a result, so automation should watch for schedule slippage and status changes right up to the settlement window.[1][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.