Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A

Platform comparison

Market context

Yellow Submarine and Execration are due to play a best-of-three in Group A of the Games of the Future Dota 2 event, with multiple match listings placing the start around 05:00 UTC on 31 July. The market’s 100% implied probability suggests the contract is already being treated as effectively locked to a Yellow Submarine win, but programmatically that should only be trusted if the official result feed confirms completion before settlement, because any cancellation, tie, or prolonged delay would trigger the market’s fallback rules rather than a normal winner resolution.[1][15][20]

For historical framing, comparable pre-match listings show why a near-certain price can be misleading: several esports calendars and scoreboards initially treat a fixture as upcoming, then later flip to live, finished, or postponed once the organiser’s feed updates, and one independent betting page even marked this same fixture as postponed/cancelled while other trackers reported it as in progress or finished 2-0.[5][6][9][13] For a trader using bots or conditional orders, the practical signal is not the headline probability but the match-status state machine: confirm scheduled time, then watch for a live start, map completion, and final series result before any automation assumes the YES side is safe.

The main catalysts are operational rather than analytical: final bracket changes, broadcast or venue updates, and any delay in the Group A schedule can change whether the market settles on a team result or reverts to 50-50 under the dispute rules. A recent fixture list for the tournament shows Yellow Submarine vs Execration on 31 July at 05:00, which is useful as a cross-check against live data feeds when scripting alerts, but the decisive input for settlement is the official completion status, not pre-match odds or preview pages.[15][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.