LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

FlyQuest’s BO3 against Disguised is priced at an extreme 100% YES, and that is consistent with the recent head-to-head pattern: FlyQuest beat Disguised 2-0 in April 2026 and also won their earlier spring meeting, giving them a clean match record across the documented 2026 series data.[1][8][10][16] For a programme-driven trader, that means the market is effectively behaving like a near-done settlement unless the event structure changes, because the historical signal is one-sided and the current crowd has already removed almost all residual uncertainty.[2][15]

The main thing to watch is not competitive form so much as execution risk: whether the series actually starts on schedule, whether the broadcast slips, and whether the match is completed without a forfeit or cancellation, since those conditions affect resolution more than the win probability itself. The market description says a match not played, a tie, or a delay beyond seven days without a winner pushes to 50-50, so a bot or conditional-order workflow should key off official schedule updates and live series status rather than just the price feed.[6][15] If you are automating, the practical trigger is simple: monitor the LCS fixture page, team match pages, and any status changes around the scheduled 7:00 PM ET slot; once the series begins, the only material change is whether a completed BO3 produces a FlyQuest result, while an incomplete series with a decided forfeit still resolves according to the platform rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.