Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 75% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 70% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 70% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 68% |
| Match Winner | 64% |
| Game 1 Winner | 61% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 59% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 59% |
| Game 2 Winner | 57% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 40% |
| Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) | 39% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 30% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 29% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Gen.G (+1.5) | 18% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 16% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 13% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 12% |
Market context
Gen.G and T1 meet in a best-of-three League of Legends series, with the market currently pricing Gen.G at 61% against T1. That sits close to the recent pattern in this rivalry: Gen.G have generally been the steadier side across the last year, including a 2–1 win over T1 in LCK 2025 Round 3–5, while T1 also proved they can flip the matchup when execution and draft line up, as seen in their later series win in 2025 and the broader split of results in head-to-head play. [1][2][15][18]
For traders automating around this market, the useful trigger points are not just the line-up cards but the series status itself. The market settles on the match winner, but a no-contest, cancellation, or delay beyond seven days without a winner would push it to 50-50, so programme any conditional orders or bot logic to react to official start announcements and any change to the scheduled 31 July slot. The listed match page shows the fixture as Gen.G versus T1 in the 2026 LCK Round 3–4 Legend Group, which is the dependency to watch for confirmation rather than relying on third-party previews. [6][11][12]
From a probabilistic angle, 61% implies the crowd is leaning Gen.G, but not treating the edge as decisive. That is consistent with a rivalry where map control, draft priority and mid-game conversion have repeatedly swung results both ways, making live or pre-match automation most sensitive to late roster news, patch context and whether the broadcast goes ahead on time. [1][5][16]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group on Polymarket Bot UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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