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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Map 1 Winner 77% O/U 3.5 Games 69% Match Winner 56% Map 2 Winner 52% Volume: $278K Liquidity: $366K Closes: 12 Jul 2026
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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 77% 23% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 77% 23% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner77%
O/U 3.5 Games69%
Match Winner56%
Map 2 Winner52%
Map 4 Winner50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 4 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 5 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)50%
Map 3 Winner43%
O/U 4.5 Games40%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.535%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)28%
Map Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)25%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)0%
Map Handicap: 100T (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5)0%

Market context

The Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 77% YES. This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between 100 Thieves and NRG in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 12 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thie…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

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