Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: SGE (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-4.5) vs Eternal Fire (+4.5) | 91% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 91% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 91% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-5.5) vs Eternal Fire (+5.5) | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 45% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-7.5) vs Eternal Fire (+7.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-8.5) vs Eternal Fire (+8.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: eternal fire vs eintracht frankfurt (bo3) - vct emea play-ins stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket semifinal 1 match between Eternal Fire and Eintracht Frankfurt in the VCT EMEA Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 16, 2026 at…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) … on Polymarket Bot UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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