Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: DFM (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
T1’s best-of-three against DetonatioN FocusMe is the underlying event, and the market’s 0% crowd-implied YES price leaves it effectively treating a T1 win as already reflected elsewhere in the book. In comparable Pacific meetings, T1 have consistently been priced as the stronger side and have converted that edge into straight-series wins, including a 2-0 result in the pair’s recent 2026 Pacific Stage 1 meeting and another 2-0 in the earlier February Pacific Kickoff match.[1][13]
For programmatic trading, the key read-through is that this market behaves like a simple series moneyline, but settlement risk is not only about the scoreboard. T1 enter with stronger recent form and a higher regional ranking than DetonatioN FocusMe in match listings, while head-to-head samples on current match pages still favour T1 by a clear margin.[18][7] If you are automating entries or setting conditional orders, the practical edge case is not a map count outcome but whether the match starts and finishes within the settlement window; a no-contest, tie, or a delay beyond seven days would force a 50-50 resolution under the market rules.
The main catalysts to watch are official schedule changes, last-minute roster or map veto updates, and whether the Pacific Stage 2 Group Omega fixture actually begins on time. Current match listings show the series as upcoming on 1 August with T1 favoured by most comparison sites, but markets tied to esports schedules can reprice quickly if broadcast timing, server issues, or tournament admin decisions shift.[2][18][11]
Methodology
We track Valorant: T1 vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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