What price will Ethereum hit on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the closing price of Ethereum on 21 June 2026, specifically the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks’ Real-Time Index at 12 AM EDT. This market currently shows a 0% crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome, suggesting the crowd expects the price to fall outside the defined settlement range.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: on 21 June 2026, Ethereum traded at $1,713.81, a 0.79% drop from the prior day, with the month’s lowest point recorded at exactly that level [1]. Comparable cases from mid-2026 show ETH hovering between $1,724 and $1,778, with technical indicators signalling extreme fear (Fear & Greed Index at 23) and bearish sentiment at 22% [1][2]. The minimum cost projected for mid-2026 is $1,869.30, yet actual trading stayed below $1,730, indicating the market’s 0% probability aligns with observed price behaviour rather than optimistic forecasts [1][4].

Traders should monitor upcoming Ethereum protocol announcements, Layer-2 upgrade schedules, and Bitcoin’s 200-week SMA support near $60,000, as these dependencies directly influence ETH’s trajectory [3]. A recent sharp selloff over the past week has pushed prices toward retesting bear-market lows, with analysts warning of further downside if Bitcoin fails to hold support [3]. For programmatic approaches, conditional orders should be triggered by deviations in CF Benchmarks’ ERTI, while copy-trading bots must account for the 9.09% ETH market-cap share of total crypto [3]. The latest price action confirms volatility remains elevated, with June 2026’s average trading price expected near $2,192.58, yet actual execution stayed significantly lower [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.