Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy rate will be set by three consecutive FOMC meetings spanning July through October 2026. Each decision produces a new upper bound for the federal funds rate target; the market resolves YES if any single meeting produces a rate cut (lower bound than the prior level) and NO if all three meetings either hold or hike. The settlement window closes immediately after the October 27–28 meeting concludes, making this a real-time event with no post-decision drift.

Historical precedent suggests that three consecutive hold decisions are the baseline scenario when inflation remains sticky and labour markets stay resilient. Between 2022 and 2023, the Fed executed nine consecutive 25-basis-point hikes before pausing; the subsequent hold period lasted six meetings before cuts began in September 2023. The current 0% probability reflects market pricing that assumes no cut materialises across this three-meeting window—a positioning that depends entirely on inflation data and employment figures remaining above the Fed's comfort threshold through summer and early autumn.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track the Consumer Price Index releases (June, July, August, September) and non-farm payroll reports (first Friday of each month) as primary catalysts. The Fed's own Summary of Economic Projections, released alongside the June meeting, will establish the Committee's forward guidance on rate paths. Any material miss on inflation or a sharp deterioration in labour force participation could shift probabilities sharply; conversely, sticky core inflation readings would reinforce the hold scenario. Real-time feeds from Bloomberg terminals and FOMC statement releases are essential for conditional order execution around announcement windows.

Methodology

We track Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.