Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy rate sits at its current level ahead of three consecutive FOMC meetings spanning March through June 2026. This market resolves YES if any single meeting produces a rate cut—defined as a lower upper bound of the target federal funds rate—and NO if all three meetings hold steady or raise rates. The mechanics are straightforward for algorithmic tracking: monitor the FOMC's official statement releases for the precise new target range, compare the upper bound to its pre-meeting level, and flag any downward movement as a qualifying event.

Historical precedent suggests rate cuts cluster during economic slowdowns rather than arriving in isolation. Between 2019 and 2020, the Fed moved from hiking cycles directly into emergency cuts within months as conditions shifted. The current 0% probability reflects market consensus that near-term inflation data and labour market resilience will support maintaining the existing rate through mid-2026. However, traders should recognise this reflects a snapshot; the crowd's confidence in "no cuts" depends entirely on economic data releases between now and June.

Watch the Consumer Price Index reports (January, February, April, May), employment figures (monthly non-farm payrolls), and any unexpected financial stability signals. The Fed's own communications—particularly Chair Powell's remarks at scheduled testimonies—often telegraph directional thinking weeks ahead of formal meetings. Conditional order logic should account for the three-meeting window: a cut at the first meeting (March) would likely trigger immediate market repricing, whilst late-cycle cuts carry different implications. Real-time feeds from Bloomberg or Reuters will timestamp official statements within minutes of release, allowing systematic traders to capture the resolution signal efficiently.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.