Fed rate cut by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is whether the Federal Reserve will lower the upper bound of its target federal funds rate between mid-December 2025 and the January 2026 FOMC meeting. Current market pricing reflects a 0% implied probability of a cut, aligning with a sharp reversal in economist expectations following solid September job data that prompted a pause in the easing cycle[1]. Historically, such near-zero probabilities have preceded decisive holds when inflation remains sticky and employment robust, as seen in the January 2026 meeting where the Fed paused its cutting cycle after three consecutive reductions in 2025[5][8]. The dot-plot projections now suggest only one additional cut in 2026, further dampening January cut expectations[2].

For a power-user building programmatic strategies, the critical catalysts are the December 9–10 FOMC statement, the accompanying economic projections, and any shift in the Fed’s hawkish tone following the December rate cut to 3.5–3.75%[3]. Traders should monitor CME FedWatch futures for real-time probability shifts, which recently showed a 17% decline in January cut odds[2]. The dependency chain hinges on incoming inflation data and whether the Fed adheres to its “data-dependent” stance, with Goldman Sachs forecasting cuts only in March and June, not January[4]. Automated bots must flag any emergency cut announcements, though current consensus points to a hold, making conditional orders for “No” outcomes the most statistically sound utility.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.