S&P 500 (SPY) closes above … on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The S&P 500 will trade on 13 July 2026, and this market settles on where the SPY exchange-traded fund closes that day. The blank threshold remains unspecified in the market title, meaning traders are evaluating conditional entry points rather than a fixed price target. For programmatic traders, this structure requires dynamic threshold-setting logic: your bot would need to monitor intraday volatility, implied move calculations, and competing orders to determine which strike levels carry edge. A 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular direction or insufficient liquidity at the current threshold being tested.

Historical precedent matters here. The SPY has closed within a 2–3% band on any given trading day roughly 68% of the time, based on trailing volatility regimes. July typically sees lower absolute volatility than spring months, though 2026 positioning remains uncertain. Comparable single-day settlement markets on major indices show that crowd probabilities collapse to 0% when thresholds drift far from consensus fair value or when the settlement window is distant enough that uncertainty dominates. The 18-month horizon to July 2026 means macro factors—Federal Reserve policy, earnings revisions, geopolitical shifts—will reshape baseline expectations multiple times before settlement.

Near-term catalysts include FOMC communications, quarterly earnings cycles, and any significant economic data releases in the months preceding settlement. Traders using conditional order logic should flag CPI releases and employment reports as volatility inflection points. The lack of a specified strike price suggests this market may be testing whether traders will anchor to technical levels, round numbers, or volatility-adjusted bands. Monitoring order-book depth and implied move metrics will be essential for timing entry and sizing positions.

Methodology

We track S&P 500 (SPY) closes above … on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.