WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the closing price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on 9 July 2026, a figure that determines whether the market settles above a specific threshold. With the crowd-implied probability for a "yes" outcome at 0%, the consensus suggests the price will fall short of the target, likely hovering near or below $71.81 as recorded at the close of trading that day[8].

Historical patterns show WTI futures have oscillated between $72.38 and $74.79 in recent days, with a 1.14% drop on 9 July after a 4.37% surge the previous day[6]. Comparable cases where prices dipped below $72 often followed volatile swings driven by supply adjustments, reinforcing why the current 0% probability aligns with the recent downward momentum[2].

Traders should monitor OPEC+ supply decisions and geopolitical developments, as these directly influence price levels[4]. Recent data indicates WTI futures opened at $74.74 on 9 July but closed lower, reflecting immediate market sensitivity to broader energy news[2]. Programmatically, conditional orders would trigger on intraday breaks below $72.50, a level that has acted as a psychological floor in prior sessions[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.